NJU MTI EC 答案

查小尼

 The Energy Lesson
[1]Ever since 1973,the energy policy pendulum has swung with depressing regularity from crisis to glut and back again . 1 A steady resting point somewhere between has not been reached. That would be a point at which transient fluctuations in oil prices were not jarring, and at which U.S. policy would accept the reality of a permanent shift from $3-a-barrel oil to $30-a-barrel oil. 2 
[2] Now we are in the glut phase. Producers are being forced to drop prices sharply. And once again we hear that the energy crisis is over. It is not. Economic recovery alone would soak up much of the excess in the oil market 3 . Another war or revolution in the Gulf —— which any prudent person must consider possible —— could send the oil-importing nations back into crisis. 4
[3]  In the United States, imports have dropped by half in the past couple of years. Domestic production is up, and consumption is down. The administration uses this improvement to buttress its case for dissolving the Energy Department 5 . But the appearance of less vulnerability to supply interruptions is deceptive and dangerous. 6
[4] Some important changes in U.S. energy use have occurred. The price of oil has been decontrolled, the strategic petroleum reserve is finally being filled ,industry is using energy much more efficiently and the gas guzzler is an endangered species. 7 But the price of natural gas is still artificially low, consumers still have no reliable source of help for reducing energy use in their homes, mass transit compared with that of other advanced nations is terrible, and the lack of a substantial gasoline tax keep that unchanged. 8
[5]Nevertheless, the Reagan administration argues that higher energy prices have led to energy conservation and that there is therefore no reason for further federal support of research and other conservation programs. But the real issue is how much of what would be economically beneficial is not happening, 9 and will not happen, under current policies. Do most types of energy use---technologies for supply and distribution, consumer information, manufacturing processes and the rest —— reflect the reality of expensive energy or the history of cheap energy 10 ? The answer varies by sector. Large businesses with access to expertise and capital have adjusted well. Most other sectors have not . 11 In residential and commercial buildings, which consume a quarter of all the energy used in America, only a tiny fraction of the economically desirable savings is being captured. 12 
[6]In short, a good beginning has been made, but it is only a beginning. To abandon conservation programs and dismantle research efforts now is to save small amounts of federal dollars at a very large longer-range cost to the economy 13 . And hopeful talk about the end of the energy crisis ignores the painful lessons of the past decade. 14 
能源教训
[1] 自从1973 年以来，我国能源政策就一直象钟摆一样经常摆来摆去，时而从危机向过剩摆动，时而又从过剩向危机摆动，令人忧心不已。至今，钟摆还没有在两个极端之间某一个安稳的地方停下来；而只有在这样一个安稳的地方停下来，石油价格变化无常的波动才不致引起震动，美国的政策也才会正视石油价格从每桶三美元长期不断地上升为每桶三十美元的现实。
[2] 现在，我们正处在过剩阶段。生产者纷纷被迫大幅度降价。我们又听到了能源危机已经过去的议论。其实不然。别的不说，只要经济回升，石油市场上和过剩现象大体上就会化为乌有。要是海湾地区再发生一场战争或革命( 任何明智之士都不能不认为这是可能的) ，石油输入国家就可能再一次陷入危机之中。
[3] 过去两三年中, 美石油进口已经减少了一半. 国内产量上升, 消费量下降. 由于情况有了改善，政府就振振有词地主张撤消能源部。从表面上看，供应中断造成危害的可能性的确减少了，但是，这只是一种危险的假象。
[4] 美国在能源利用方面的确有了一些重大变化。石油价格管制取消了，战略石油储备终趋于完成，工业中的能源利用率大大提高，耗油过多的汽车已濒于绝迹。但是，天然气价格仍然人为地过低，消费者在住宅节能方面仍然得不到稳妥的帮助，公共交通同其他先进国家相比糟糕透顶，而且，由于汽油税不高，情况至今仍无改变。

[5]
尽管这样，里根政府仍然辩白说，能源价格的提高已经使能源有所节约，因此，联邦政府已经不需要再支持能源研究计划和其他节能计划了。但是，真正的问题是：究竟有多少事情从经济上来说本是有利的，可是在现行政策下，却没有得到实现，而且将来也不会得到实现? 大多数利用能源的环节——供应和分配技术、消费者信息、制造工艺等等——的现状又怎样呢? 究竟是反映了能源昂贵的现实呢, 还是反映了能源低廉的历史呢? 答案视不同部门而定。拥有技术人才和资本的大企业已经作了妥善的调整。大多数其他部门还没有适应这种现实。居民住宅和商业建筑所消耗的能源占美国全部能源消耗量的四分之一。这些地方实行节约，在经济上是可取的，可是现已实现的节约却微乎其微, 还大有潜力可挖。
6] 总之，我们已经有了一个良好的开端，但是，这也仅仅是开始而已。现在就放弃节能计划，停止能源研究工作，可以给联邦政府节省少量开支，但从比较长远的观点来看，只能使经济蒙受重大损失。那种能源危机已经过去的乐观论调，只能是对过去十年的痛苦教训的忽视。

来自iPhone客户端

卡卡卡卡萝

感觉略不一样……摇摆不定那个蒙对了……波斯湾没写出来T^T

来自Android客户端

TJQ016

楼主的译文有些不一样吧 吓死我了 我以为我没翻完  有几句意思错了 (ಥ_ಥ) 词不认识没办法了

来自Android客户端