庖丁解牛之法—阅读理解(不做任何广告)

壹世，唇齒相须

庖丁解牛阅读方法，本文出自《考研英语不读胜读》下期讲公布题目和答案的详解。前面我们讲到科普类，社会生活类的庖丁解牛方法，现在我们讲讲商业经济类。
1. Could the bad old days ofeconoic decline be about to return?Since OPEC agreed to supply cuts inMarch,the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26a barrel.upfrom lessthan%10 last December.This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memoriesof the 1973 oil shock,when prices quadrupled,and 1979-1980.when they alsoalmost trioled.Noth precious shiocks resulted in double-digit inflation andglobal economic decline.So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doomthis time? 提出了一个问题：石油供应减少了，油价升了，经济危机会重来吗？
2. The oil price was given anotherpush up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports.Strengthening economicgrowth,at the same as winter grips the northern hemisphere,could push the pricehigher still in the short term. 给出油价上升的另外三个理由。
3. Yet there are good reasons toexpect the econmic consequences now to be less secere than in the 1970s,In mostcountries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the priceof petrol than it did in the1970s.In Europe,taxes account for up tofour-fifthsof the retail price,so ecen quite big changes in the price of crude hace a moremuted effect on pump prices than in the past. 原油价格上升不会导致经济危机的一个理由：原油价格占汽油价格份额小。
4. Rich economies are also lessdependent on oil than they were,and so less saensitive to swings in the oilprice.Energy consercation,ashift to other fuels and a decline n the importanceof heavy.energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption.For eachdollar of GDP(in constant prices)rich economies now use nearly50% less oil thanin1973.The Oecd estimates in its latest Economic Outlook than,if oil pricesaveraged%22a barrel for afull year,compared with $13 in1998,this increase theoil imort bill in rich economies by only 0.25%-0.5% of GDP.That is less thanone quarter of the income loss in1974 or 1980.On the other hand,oil-importingemerging economies-to which heavy industry has shifted-have become moreenergy-intensive,and so could be more seriously squeezed. 原油价格上升不会导致经济危机的有一个理由：富裕国家不再像以往那样依赖石油。
5. One more reason not to losesleep over the rise in oil prices is that,unlike the rises in the1970s. ithasnot occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation andglobalexcess demand.A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging fromeconomic decline.The Economist’s commodity price index is broadly unchangingfrom a year ago.In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%,and in 1979 by almost30%. 原油价格上升不会导致经济危机的第三个理由：总物价指数没有上涨，也没有需求过量。
下期讲发布题目与答案详解。

壹世，唇齒相须