【外刊精读】老龄退休该何去何从？

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原文导读 The incredible shrinking plan Can you afford to retire? The answer is much more likely to be no today than it was a year ago—especially for those old enough to ask themselves the question. The resurgence of inflation is eroding the real value of savings. Higher interest rates have caused a repricing of bonds and stocks. The result is that the pot of assets many future pensioners are hoping to live off has shrunk fast. Pundits have long predicted that those retirement savings would come under pressure—a problem they have dubbed the “pension time-bomb”. The fuse now looks much shorter. The soon-to-be retired are often advised to shift their assets into bonds and out of stocks as they prepare to stop working, to protect their savings from big stockmarket corrections. So-called “life-cycle” pension funds are usually invested almost entirely in stocks during their owners’ younger years, a strategy meant to capture the higher returns that listed equities tend to generate over long periods. As workers near retirement, these funds usually swap most of their equities for government bonds, which are supposed to hold their value. But 2022 looks set to be an appalling year for bonds. The typical portfolio of those closest to hanging up their boots has lost 17% of its value since January. This impoverishment could fast become reality for millions. A lot of baby-boomers turned into pension-boomers in 2021. The Federal Reserve Board of St Louis reckons there were 3.3m more retired people in October 2021 in America than 20 months before. More than half of Americans over 55 have left the labour force, up from 48% in the third quarter of 2019, according to the Pew Research Centre, a think-tank in Washington, DC. This reverses a decades-long increase in the share of people working past 55, which has slid back to the levels of 2007-09 in just a year. Survey data already suggest some of those who recently retired are considering returning to work. Those who do not, or cannot, probably face leaner years than they had expected. But individuals are not the only ones who will bear the burden of the adjustment. Some of it will also be shouldered by governments. And part of it will be borne by a creature that is becoming ever rarer: the defined-benefit (DB) pension plan. Over recent decades, ageing populations and rising life expectancies have together pulled down interest rates; bigger savings pools chasing a finite volume of assets meant capital became cheaper. Many of the DB schemes, and some of the biggest pension funds in existence today, are run by public institutions. The way to measure how easily a pension plan will meet its liabilities in the future is to look at its “funded ratio”. The third factor is the hardest to figure out, because future payouts are based on undetermined final salaries and on how long the recipient and their spouse, who is often eligible for payments, might live. Still, it is the other two elements—the value of the investment pot and the discount rate—that decide whether funded ratios soar or sink. The easiest way to run a pension is to match assets with liabilities, by buying long-term bonds that pay out when pensioners come knocking. That strategy only works, though, if the plan is “fully funded”: that is, if the cash it has to begin with is worth 100% of its expected liabilities.

第一段：Can you afford to retire? The answer is much more likely to be no today than it was a year ago—especially for those old enough to ask themselves the question. The resurgence of inflation is eroding the real value of savings. Higher interest rates have caused a repricing of bonds and stocks. The result is that the pot of assets many future pensioners are hoping to live off has shrunk fast. Pundits have long predicted that those retirement savings would come under pressure—a problem they have dubbed the “pension time-bomb”. The fuse now looks much shorter. 参考译文：你有能力退休吗？相比一年前，今天的答案更有可能是否定的——特别是对于那些年龄大到可以问自己这个问题的人。通货膨胀的重新抬头正在削弱储蓄的实际价值。更高的利率造成了债券和股票的重新定价。其结果是，许多未来的养老金领取者希望依靠的那笔资产已经迅速缩水。学者们早就预测到，退休储蓄将面临压力——他们称之为 "养老金定时炸弹 "的问题。现在看来，导火线要短得多。 知识点解读： 1. afford to：通常指(财力、时间等)足以承担(损失、后果等)，在翻译时要避免直译成“负担得起”，要根据语境具体翻译，避免translationese，例如以下翻译： l You can't afford to give a condemnation.：你根本没有资格指责别人。 l We can afford to overlook minor offences.：我们可以不计较小过。 l We cannot afford to sleep away our life.：我们可没有时间整天睡大觉。 2. resurgence of inflation：通货膨胀卷土重来，经济学常用语，例如，“At the same time, the looseness of monetary policy has made many investors fear the eventual resurgence of inflation.与此同时，货币政策的松动使得很多投资者担心通胀最终会卷土重来。” 3. Erode：本意指“腐蚀、侵蚀”，在经济学上常表示“削弱、遏制”的意思，例如，“Greenspan said the debt will eventually constrain the U. S. economy and erode America's place on the world stage.格林斯潘表示，国债将最终遏制美国经济的增长，影响美国在全球经济舞台的地位。” 4. bonds and stocks：经济学术语，债券和股票，例如，“Company resources include tangible assets, like inventory, and intangible assets, like bonds and stocks.公司资源包括有形资本，就比如货物库存，也包括无形资本，比如债券跟股票等。” 5. the pot of assets：一笔资产，“pot”本意是指“罐、壶”，例如我们常说的“pots and pans 坛坛罐罐”和“tea pot 茶壶”，此外还有常用的表达，例如，“a big pot 大人物”和“hot pot 火锅”。但是在经济学学上常用“a pot of”来描述金钱，译为“一笔钱”，例如，“a pot of money大笔钱”，此时“a pot of”不表示“一罐、一锅、一壶”的意思，大家要注意区分。 6. shrink：经济学上表示经济收紧、萎缩、衰落的意思，例如，“If they cannot be, then trying to pay will only shrink economies further, stopping them becoming viable.如果还不起，那么试图还债只会令经济进一步萎缩，停止还债由此变得切实可行。”常见有个俚语叫“a shrinking violet”，译为“畏首畏尾的人”，例如，“George has a very good mind . he would rise fast in the world if he weren't such a shrinking violet乔治很聪明。如果他不是一个畏首畏尾的人，在社会上早就出人头地了。” 7. come under pressure：受到压力，“under pressure”就是常说的“压力之下、迫于压力”，例如，“I ' m under pressure to buy my wife a new coat. 我迫不得已才去为妻子买了件新上衣。”

第二段：The soon-to-be retired are often advised to shift their assets into bonds and out of stocks as they prepare to stop working, to protect their savings from big stockmarket corrections. So-called “life-cycle” pension funds are usually invested almost entirely in stocks during their owners’ younger years, a strategy meant to capture the higher returns that listed equities tend to generate over long periods. As workers near retirement, these funds usually swap most of their equities for government bonds, which are supposed to hold their value. But 2022 looks set to be an appalling year for bonds. The typical portfolio of those closest to hanging up their boots has lost 17% of its value since January. 参考译文：人们通常建议即将退休的人在准备不再工作时将他们的资产转移到债券中而不是股票，以保护他们的储蓄不受股市大调整的影响。所谓的 "生命周期 "养老基金通常在其所有者年轻的时候几乎完全投资于股票，这一策略旨在获取上市股票在长期内常会产生的较高回报。当工人接近退休时，这些基金通常将大部分股票换成政府债券，因为政府债券应该保持其价值。但是，2022年看起来将是一个令人震惊的债券年。那些最接近退休的人的典型投资组合自1月以来已经损失了17%的价值。 知识点解读： 1. soon-to-be：即将成为的，例如， “You are about to see quite a turnaround, so if you have been suffering with health issues, those are soon-to-be history!你将会看到显著的好转，所以如果你一直被健康问题所困扰，所有这些问题都将被解决！”多次强调，大家要学会举一反三此类用连字符构成的形容词，例如下文的“decades-long”也是一样的用法，我们可以举一反三为“years-long”等。 2. shift into:转移进……，相应的，“shift out of”就是“从……转出”，此外我们还可以用“shift from A to B”，例如，“He nervously shifted his weight from foot to foot.他很紧张，重心在双脚之间来回换。” 3. swap：替换，例如，“The man reportedly went into a jewelry store and tried to swap out the gem for a fake one.据报道，这名男子走进一家珠宝店，试图鱼目换珠，以赝品换真品珠宝。” 4. be supposed to：应该，例如，“They were supposed to be here an hour ago.他们应该在一小时以前到达这里。”此外还有一个常见的表达为“it is supposed that据闻”，例如，“It is supposed that peer modeling is particularly effective for students who have low self-efficacy.人们认为对于自我效能更低的人来说，模仿同龄人的行为更有效。” 5. an appalling year for：令人震惊的一年，常因为发生了大事件。“appalling”表示“骇人的”，例如，“He became appalled at unsavory tricks.如此心狠手辣的手段，使他惊呆了。”常见的表达还有“appalling crimes 骇人听闻的罪行”。 6. hang up one’s boots：俚语，表示退休的意思，相当于retire，是一个非常地道的表达。

第三段：This impoverishment could fast become reality for millions. A lot of baby-boomers turned into pension-boomers in 2021. The Federal Reserve Board of St Louis reckons there were 3.3m more retired people in October 2021 in America than 20 months before. More than half of Americans over 55 have left the labour force, up from 48% in the third quarter of 2019, according to the Pew Research Centre, a think-tank in Washington, DC. This reverses a decades-long increase in the share of people working past 55, which has slid back to the levels of 2007-09 in just a year. 参考译文：这种贫困化可能很快成为数百万人的现实。很多婴儿潮一代在2021年变成了退休金潮一代。圣路易斯联邦储备委员会估计，2021年10月美国的退休人员比20个月前多330万人。根据华盛顿特区的智囊团皮尤研究中心的数据，超过一半的55岁以上的美国人不再充当劳动力，比2019年第三季度的48%还要高。这扭转了几十年来55岁以上工作人口比例的增长，仅在一年内就滑落到2007-09年的水平。 知识点解读： 1. baby-boomers：在生育高峰期中出生的人，俗称婴儿潮，是非常地道的表达，例如，“Mr Willetts is not the only writer to worry about baby-boomers crashing through society like a flash flood.威利特斯先生不是唯一担心婴儿潮一代会像山洪暴发一样冲击社会的作家。” 2. pension-boomers：领退休金的那一拨人，也就是退休潮。 3. leave the labour force:字面意思为“离开劳动力”，实际意思就是“丧失劳动力”，例如，“As older farmers leave the labour force and young ones go to cities, the decline in agricultural knowledge could reduce grain yields.同时由于老年人失去劳动力，青壮年去了城市，农业知识水平的下降可能会降低粮食产量。”常见的“劳动适龄人口”的英文表达则为“active labour force”. 4. think-tank：专家小组，智囊团，例如，“A more sensible model was outlined in a report by the Centre for Policy Studies, a London-based think tank.伦敦的一家智库“政策研究中心”的一份报告中，提出了一种更为明智的私有化模式。” 5. slide back：本义指“滑回、溜回”，在经济学上则表示“再次回到原点、重新陷入”等的意思，例如，“Japan proceeded to slide back into recession.日本重新滑入了衰退的轨道。”这个表达非常地形象，会比“drop back”等的表达更有亮点，大家可以在写作中积累。

第四段：Survey data already suggest some of those who recently retired are considering returning to work. Those who do not, or cannot, probably face leaner years than they had expected. But individuals are not the only ones who will bear the burden of the adjustment. Some of it will also be shouldered by governments. And part of it will be borne by a creature that is becoming ever rarer: the defined-benefit (DB) pension plan. 参考译文：调查数据已经表明，一些最近退休的人正在考虑返回工作岗位。那些没有或不能重返工作岗位的人，可能会面临比他们预期的更艰难的日子。但是，个人并不是唯一要承担调整负担的人。其中一些也将由政府承担。而其中一部分将由一种越来越少的群体来承担：固定福利（DB）养老金计划。 知识点解读： 1. bear the burden：肩负重担，例如，“The children is not necessary to bear the burden of marriage problem, what we can do is to keep a good profile to others at least.孩子们没必要背负我们婚姻问题的负担，我们能做的，至少是保持一个好的姿态面对别人。”除此之外，我们也可以说“shoulder the burden”，下文的shoulder就是这个用法。同理，当我们想表达“承担责任”时，我们可以如下表达： l shoulder the responsibility，例如，“She shoulders the responsibility of bringing the two children up on her own.她一个人负起抚养两个孩子的全部责任。” l bear the responsibility，例如，“Any of the units that fails to do so shall, in accordance with law, bear the responsibility for breach of contract.不按照合同约定履行义务的，依法承担违约责任。”

第五段：Over recent decades, aging populations and rising life expectancies have together pulled down interest rates; bigger savings pools chasing a finite volume of assets meant capital became cheaper. Many of the DB schemes, and some of the biggest pension funds in existence today, are run by public institutions. The way to measure how easily a pension plan will meet its liabilities in the future is to look at its “funded ratio”. The third factor is the hardest to figure out, because future payouts are based on undetermined final salaries and on how long the recipient and their spouse, who is often eligible for payments, might live. 参考译文：近几十年来，人口老龄化和预期寿命的提高共同拉低了利率；更大的储蓄资金追逐有限的资产量意味着资本变得更便宜。许多最大型的DB计划，以及今天存在的一些规模最大的养老基金，都是由公共机构管理的。衡量一个养老金计划在未来多容易履行债务的方法是看其 "资金比率"。第三个因素是最难把握的，因为未来的支付是基于未确定的最终工资，以及领取者和他们的配偶（通常有资格获得支付）可能活多久。 知识点解读： 1. aging populations：人口老龄化，例如，“At the same time, the health care needs of aging populations are expected to grow, intensifying the shortage of nurses.与此同时，老年人的健康保障需要将会增长，这也加剧了护士的短缺。” 2. rising life expectancies：不断延长的预期寿命。 3. in existence：现存的，现有的，例如，“You are the most selfish, heartless creature in existence.你是世界是最自私、最没良心的家伙。” 4. be run by：由……运行、经营，例如，“Your package will also need a few scripts to be run by the system when installing and removing the package.在安装和除去软件包时，您的软件包还需要一些由系统运行的脚本。” 5. meet liability：履行责任，履行债务。 6. eligible：有资格的、合适的，例如，“A dance at home would be more eligible.在家开个舞会我看更好。”常见的表达有以下： l be eligible for：有资格接受，例如，“Mary is not eligible for an award.玛丽没有申请助学金的资格” l be eligible to：符合......的条件，例如，“Anyone with an annual income of under 5000 may be eligible to apply.凡年收入在5000以下的人都有资格申请”

第六段：Still, it is the other two elements—the value of the investment pot and the discount rate—that decide whether funded ratios soar or sink. The easiest way to run a pension is to match assets with liabilities, by buying long-term bonds that pay out when pensioners come knocking. That strategy only works, though, if the plan is “fully funded”: that is, if the cash it has to begin with is worth 100% of its expected liabilities. 参考译文：然而，正是另外两个因素——投资资金的价值和贴现率——决定了资金到位率的飙升或沉沦。经营养老金的最简单方法是使资产与负债相匹配，即购买长期债券，在养老金领取者来领取时支付给他们。但是，这种策略只有在计划 "资金充足 "的情况下才有效：也就是说，需要它一开始就拥有的现金价值是其预期负债的100%。 知识点解读： 1. soar or sink：飙升或骤降垫底，“soar”和“sink”两个词在描述变化时非常形象，常常用来描述“猛地上升或下降”，大家可以在图表写作中灵活使用，例如: l Inflation has soared while productivity has dwindled. 通货膨胀上升，同时生产率下降。 l He must now inevitably sink in her opinion. 在她眼里，他的身价一定会一落千丈。

随着世界人口的不断老龄化，老龄人退休问题也成了热点。这几年在疫情的冲击下，经济大不如前，老龄人退休又该何去何从？今天让我们跟随贸学长一同了解。